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Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050.
A powerful new digital modelling tool is helping tackle an emerging challenge in children’s health – the dramatic decline in walking and cycling to school.
World-first research from The Kids Research Institute Australia and Curtin University predicts climate change could trigger more than 100 million additional malaria cases and 500,000 additional deaths in Africa by 2050, including substantial impacts on children.
Vietnam, as one of the countries in the Greater Mekong Subregion, has committed to eliminating all malaria by 2030. Declining case numbers highlight the country's progress, but challenges including imported cases and pockets of residual transmission remain. To successfully eliminate malaria and to prevent reintroduction of malaria transmission, geostatistical modelling of vulnerability (importation rate) and receptivity (quantified by the reproduction number) of malaria is critical.
Eradication and elimination strategies for lymphatic filariasis (LF) primarily rely on multiple rounds of annual mass drug administration (MDA), but also may benefit from vector control interventions conducted by malaria vector control programs. We aim to examine the overlap in LF prevalence and malaria vector control to identify potential gaps in program coverage.
Worldwide, tuberculosis (TB) remains the leading cause of death from infectious diseases. Africa is the second most-affected region, accounting for a quarter of the global TB burden, but there is limited evidence whether there is subnational variation of TB prevalence across the continent. Therefore, this study aimed to estimate sub-national and local TB prevalence across Africa.
Differential exposure and effect of malaria results from blends of biophysical, geospatial, and social determinants of health (SDoH). Likewise, effective policies and programmatic interventions against malaria must consider the complex interaction of social and spatial factors, while comprehensive health promotion approaches must simultaneously tackle SDoH and the ecological dimensions that drive malaria.
Disease spreading models such as the ubiquitous SIS compartmental model and its numerous variants are widely used to understand and predict the behavior of a given epidemic or information diffusion process. A common approach to imbue more realism to the spreading process is to constrain simulations to a network structure, where connected nodes update their disease state based on pairwise interactions along the edges of their local neighborhood.
In the context of high malaria burden yet limited resources, Guinea's national malaria programme adopted an innovative subnational tailoring approach, including engagement of stakeholders, data review, and data analytics, to update their malaria operational plan for 2024-2026 and identify the most appropriate interventions for each district considering the resources available.
Post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC), or long COVID, are a public health concern. While most recover from SARS-CoV-2 infections within weeks, some experience persistent symptoms. Here, we quantified the association between repeated SARS-CoV-2 infections and the risk of hospital-diagnosed PASC.